Visual Uncertainty Elicitation

Problem

It is not uncommon that domain experts need to express (elicit) their estimation of an unknown quantity. E.g., in the food safety domain it is infeasible to test every new product in the lab, so experts estimate safety based on prior experience and scientific knowledge about the ingredients. In the construction domain, the opinion of experts may be gathered in addition to a simulation model.

Prior research suggests that visual interactive elicitation approaches may be more effective than traditional questionnaires. However, research in the visualization field is scarce.

Aim

SE: Collect and present scientific literature covering uncertainty elicitation approaches, with a focus on interactive and visual/graphical methods.

Other information

References

• A. O’Hagan, “Expert Knowledge Elicitation: Subjective but Scientific,” The American Statistician, vol. 73, no. sup1, pp. 69–81, Mar. 2019, doi: 10.1080/00031305.2018.1518265.
• J. Hullman, M. Kay, Y.-S. Kim, and S. Shrestha, “Imagining Replications: Graphical Prediction & Discrete Visualizations Improve Recall & Estimation of Effect Uncertainty,” IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 446–456, Jan. 2018, doi: 10.1109/TVCG.2017.2743=898.

Contact

• Nikolaus Piccolotto